Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said there will be no military operations inside the Idlib Governorate.
After the negotiations in Sochi, it was decided to create a demilitarized zone along the front line of Idlib. Until October 15, all “moderate militants” must be withdrawn from the front line for 15-20 kilometers within Idlib.
In addition, all heavy weapons must be withdrawn from the front line.
Although it seems that Erdogan has achieved his goal at this stage, Putin has a big masterpiece, we’ll see him in the following months.
After all, the strategy of green buses is the work of the Russians. It is not clear, what impact this agreement will have on NATO.
Certainly on the night of the agreement in Sochi, the Israeli air force and the French navy have come alive in the skies of Syria Issues.
The withdrawal mechanism is not specified and what would happen if the militiamen do not want to withdraw but apparently under the Astana agreements, the Turks will try to establish full operational control over “Al-Nusra” and Co. using fighters from her control yourself.
“The territory controlled by the Syrian opposition must be demilitarized and the Syrian opposition that holds these territories will remain there, but together with Russia we will make efforts to free these territories from radical elements,” Erdogan said.
If Turkey fulfills its obligations, the demilitarized zone regime will be extended until 15 December.
Where exactly 10-15 thousand “immoderate” militants will disappear are still incomprehensible.
They do not want to join the pro-Turkish structures, they do not want to be disarmed, they do not want to leave Syria. So it is unlikely that a large-scale offensive will occur, provided that the question of creating a demilitarized zone is resolved. Scenario If there are local offensives in the north of Hama and Latakia, and although some rearguard plans will be implemented, we will look at events based on the front line events.
The scenario of a showdown between the various factions, perhaps aided by the Russian or Turkish intelligence services, is not unlikely
In general, we can say that Turkey has prevented Russia and Iran from completing the operation at Idlib, in the form in which it was conceived in August.
Erdogan received a month late to take control of the situation at Idlib and monopolize control over the militias at Idlib.
The Assad government has already supported the proposal for the demilitarized zone. Even if the Syrian people will not look favorably on this solution, but have amassed this mass of terrorists in a restricted area by green buses, they need an unconventional solution.
Certainly much nervousness is felt on social networks among the Idlib rebels
In light of this delay, we can expect Russia and Iran to shift their focus to At-Tanf and Rojava in mid-October, especially since Erdogan called YPG Turkey’s biggest security threat.
If, as a whole, it is a result of this kind, Turkey is rather advantageous, although certainly this agreement does not have a public party counterpart.
The position of Turkey in any case is all to become, it is possible to hypothesize a real military occupation of the Idlib region with important costs.
In detail:
1. Turkey must ensure by the end of the year the possibility of safe transit along the Hama-Aleppo route to restore direct communication between the capitals of the homonymous provinces.
2. Russia to increase its quota in the demarcation line (most likely will increase the number of military police in northern Hama and west of Aleppo.
3. Before the end of the year the Latakia-Aleppo route must be restored, which also passes through Idlib. Work in progress
work in progress
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